Interview with Michael Emerson, 2004, www.seetv-exchanges.com

After the enlargement of the European Union to 10 new members, what are the perspectives for EU integration of the Balkan states?

When the Balkans countries will approach the Union, will it be in one package or one by one, depending on the result of the Stabilization and Association Process

Macedonia has tabled an application so that one could become conceivably a matter for opening of negotiations in a few years. The others, Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro, Kosovo and Albania are further off.
I think history shows us, I mean the history of accession negotiations and particularly, all of them, particularly the last two, shows that the answer is a kind of hybrid, it's a bit of both. On the one hand, the states themselves want to apply individually, they don't want to have complications from possible weaknesses or other complications from the others. They wish to be judged on their own merits and the EU judges each state on their own merits. However, when the dynamics of the situation will become or will be a highly competitive process, and you saw in the current enlargement of plus ten, what became as an individual process, starting at different times, in the end they all ended up together, because the competitive process was so intense that in the end, the EU could not distinguish between them sufficiently.

Is it realistic to expect Macedonia to join the EU between 2010 and 2012?

Of course, Macedonia will have to achieve the normal standards. There will be, in my opinion, no lowering of the standards as the enlargement process goes on. If anything, it will be a toughening of the standards.
The number one issue is the stability of interethnic relations. They have a good constitution and Macedonia is admired for, with the help of Solana, for having avoided a civil war fairly recently and trying to make a go of having a multiethnic society and political structure. That has to be matured, it has to be shown that it is sustainable and it is not a subject of constant tension or threats of outbreak of violence. Number two, I would say it's the state of the rule of law and the serious reduction of the problems of corruption and criminality.

On the of struggle of Bosnia to catch with the rest of the Balkan countries

Well, the impression we get here in Brussels and I think this represents a fair number of people who are going in and out of Bosnia for professional reasons fairly regularly is that, while, the situation, of course, has been extraordinarily difficult, the Dayton Constitution is complicated and difficult, none the less, there is the perception that Bosnia is making serious progress towards becoming a modern European state and different communities are progressively learning to live with each other, there is considerable amount of refugee return, but, I think the most striking thing is that leadership elites in the Bosnian communities do seem to be getting the message that if they want to join Europe, then the transformation of the political and social and economic situation has to proceed in certain well identified directions and, broadly speaking, they are trying to go down that road. It will take a long time, it will be a bumpy road. It is not a message received, in my opinion by EU of a static Bosnia, or a going backwards Bosnia, it's a progressive one even if it's been carrying on for a long time.

On Serbia and Montenegro and the state of that union in the next 5 or 10 years

There is a three year period of which one year has already elapsed, during which the Serbs and Montenegrens can think about the experience of their Union, and decide whether to continue it or to dissolve it. So, the possible dissolution of Serbia and Montenegro is accepted by everybody as a legal possibility. Neither party will be blackened if they secede because it is written into this Constitution. Then comes the question of what do the two parties actually will want. I mean, if one examines the shifting politics, coalitions, and shifting voting preferences of peoples of Serbia and Montenegro I would say, as of today, it is not at all clear what these parties will want. I think the latest news is that with the formation of the new Serbian government presided by Mr. Kostunica who is in favour keeping the EU his coalition partner, whilst its coalition partner, the G17 plus wants out, but they are out of that. But, given the particularly strong performance of the Serb radical nationalist elements, I think that we observe that Djukanovic is saying, we want to get out of that, we don't want to be tied up with that. So, I guess it is looking more like Montenegro will want to secede. But that is not clear, maybe we will have to wait the result of that till they have a referendum. Now, if they do, if Montenegro does secede, then it will be accepted as independent sovereign state as long as thy secede and civilized and democratic and legal procedures will be accepted. Whether Montenegro then would be placed for full membership in the EU, is another question. The EU does not like the idea of having more and more very small states. It makes life difficult, maybe impossible for the functioning of the decision making institutions in the EU. So, the Montenegro, if it does secede, and says, hey, ho, we want to be a member of the EU, they have to think, they have to assess their position realistically and they may be elements in the EU which says, sorry chap, we are full up for the time being, we will let you know when we are ready to take on the 31. or 34. member state and in the mean time, you can have a fairly advanced association agreement, if you like.

What exactly does it mean to become a candidate for membership?

To be a candidate, without yet beginning negotiations, here we are getting some increasing assistance. It is really coming on strong when you are in the negotiation process. There you are being dragged through all 31 chapters, that is to say, subjects, sectoral subjects, agricultural, competition policy, administrative policy, 31, you are being dragged through all of them to get in line with existing EU law and then when you've got your law in order or your law is compliant with the EU then you have to show that you are capable of implementing the law. So, that is a long, tough, really serious conditionality process. It has substantial economic aid attached to it, as well.

On the political will and readiness of the European countries to welcome Balkans as a part of the EU

On the Summit level there is a commitment, recognizing the perspectives of all of South East Europe to become full members of the EU in due course-that is written in black and white, Thessalonikki and different summits and now, the question is how sustainable or sincere is that commitment and it is quite interesting that Romano Prodi, the President of the Commission in these last days went on record as saying that Ukraine, Moldova and Caucasus would not be candidates for full accession. He was saying, we had to say stop at some point the enlargement process, and for him, that stop would be after welcoming all of the South East European countries except Moldova which finds itself outside that category.

Cutaways, Michael Emerson in his office in Brussels