28 September 2006 at 18:30 on Europe by Satellite

Antonio Missiroli on EU absorption capacity

Antonio Missiroli is Chief analyst at the European Policy Centre in Brussels.

FULL TRANSCRIPT OF THE INTERVIEW WITH ANTONIO MISSIROLI, CHIEF ANALYST OF THE EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE ON EU ABSORPTION CAPACITY

00:00 On EU absorption capacity

“We think that the choice of the term “absorption capacity” is quite unfortunate because it sends all the wrong messages around. Even inside the current European Union no one has ever been absorbed, have we ever absorbed France or Britain? Nobody wants to be absorbed. And the same applies to the candidate countries of course, we don’t want to absorb them and they don’t want to be absorbed by the EU. And therefore, the notion is a little bit misleading. It is to a certain extent … a broader issue that is what kind of combination should we have can we have between what is officially called deepening of the EU, especially in terms of policies, and the widening that is the enlargement process of the EU. We have come to some critical juncture right now: opinion polls show that there is a decreasing willingness on the part of the European citizens to keep the door open at least in the short term although there is not a general opposition in keeping the door open in the medium-long term, but in the short term there is a sort of signal that we should stop or slow down. And this has probably to be combined with the demand of many governments and citizens for making the EU work better in terms of policies, in institutional terms now that the EU has a critical size of 27 and more.”

01:35 What will the November report of the European Commission on absorption capacity contain?

“Probably the conclusions of the report will be balancing acts in which they will say enlargement goes on but before moving further in particular with the current official candidates for joining the Union, we have to adapt the institutions, either through a targeted integration of the Constitution with some other …?”

02:01 When to expect an institutional settlement of the EU?

“I’m not a crystal ball gazer, therefore I cannot tell you. What I see is that now that there is a certain consensus among the 25/27 for some revisiting if the Nice Treaty, there are different degrees of willingness to change the institutions, on one hand the Constitution was package deal, everybody has accepted everything and therefore choosing only some elements would dismantle the package deal and some countries could say well, if that is negotiable then why not also something else. At the same time, there is a sort of commitment of the mistakes to integrate most of the elements into some new constitutional base. The ratification process has to be unanimous, either through referenda or other instruments and therefore the issue of the unanimity and the veto right, there are two veto’s, the ex-ante veto –means in the negotiations, and now the ex-post veto – the veto that comes from the no in the popular referenda. And that is seems lingers over the timing of the revision of the institutional arrangements, there is always the possibility of a no.”

03:21 On European Commission President Barroso’s latest statement on enlargement: what does it mean, especially for Croatia?

“President Barroso has not gone any further than the decisions already adopted by the European Council. If the European Council is able to deliver some institutional reform by the end of 2008, than there will be no impact on the pace of enlargement because even if the case of Croatia, which is the most likely candidate for the next step in the enlargement process, the dates that were mentioned were 2009/2010. So there would be no direct impact. But of course the question mark of the ability of the 27 to deliver by 2008 and therefore there could be some consequences. I have to be fair to Croatia: probably Croatia will have to pay the price for the premature entry of Romania and Bulgaria, because everybody agrees the accession treaty for Bulgaria and Romania was signed to early and that the two countries were not ready. And therefore precisely for that reason, there will probably be some delay although in terms of preparedness Croatia could easily enter earlier than 2009/2010.”

04:31 What could be the conclusions on the Western Balkans at the December summit?

“Well, I suppose that the key issue will be Turkey, not the Balkans but Turkey. And it is too early to tell because the progress report will be important, it will be also be important what Ankara does over the next few weeks in terms of language, style and also that will be passed, the general behaviour on the part of the Turkish government. The signs are not good and it is not unlikely that there will be some slowing down or freezing of negotiations with Turkey. Either, on only some chapters, those affected by the controversial issues, or on the whole process. This could affect, could .. the facts over the other negotiations, with Croatia, potentially Macedonia, which is a candidate but is not still in negotiations. But it could work both ways, there could a sort of contamination of the Turkish problems to the other countries, but it could also be balancing precisely because we are slowing down with Turkey, we might decide to speed up with other countries, it’s too early to tell.”

05:38 Are Macedonia, Albania, Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina in the same enlargement basket?

“They are in the same basket in the perception of the European public and also in the institutional because the Stabilisation and Association processes are foreseen for all these countries and although the logic is that each country will have its own action plan and its own pace for meeting the different targets that are foreseen. So I would say that they are in the same basket, there is a rough action plan where by the middle of the next decade they might be inside the EU but it’s very easy to say this now, there are still ten years to go, and it will be important to see what happens between now and then in the EU as much as in the Balkan countries.”

06:20 Will Macedonia start membership negotiations by 2008?

“As I said it very much depends on the logic that the European Council will adopt. If the logic is to send a general signal of slowing down of the whole process, that is very unlikely. If instead the European Council will want to balance the slowing down with Turkey by speeding up with the countries, that is not entirely to be ruled out, but it will probably be subject to some further monitoring and screening by the Commission.”

06:49 What will be the consequences of Bulgaria and Romania’s entry for Croatia, and the whole region?

“This will have consequences certainly for Croatia and for the overall approach of the EU to the candidates for the next round of enlargement. The consequences could also be more precise according to the report of the Commission released yesterday (September 26th) on Bulgaria and Romania: from now on certain candidates might be taken in but with safeguard clauses. Safeguard clauses could be applied. That is, they would be taken in at a certain date but if they don’t meet the conditions and the commitments that they have taken up at the moment of the accession treaties, they could be penalised and this could represent a precedent also for the Balkan countries. In this respect, Bulgaria and Romania are important for the region.”

07:36 Cutaways of Antonio Missiroli

08:27 END OF TRANSMISSION

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