Interview with Judy Batt, 2006, www.seetv-exchanges.com

Transcript of the interview

06:27 On the results of the Montenegrin referendum

First of all it’s a great example of how EU soft power can work, of the way on which the EU devoted for once sufficient resources, sufficient human skills to solving a particular problem in the Balkans, they managed to bring about a real change in political behaviour, the sides came together and agreed on the rules of the game and the conduct of the referendum was extraordinary and Montenegro became independent peacefully without a single shot being fired, a single injury occurring. That’s really good news for the EU itself, it throws a challenge back to the EU to deliver for its part and to show that Montenegro can be a turning point for the region and the EU itself can use the example of Montenegro to argue with other states that they can do it. If Montenegrins can resolve their problems peacefully so can others in the region and the EU believes in the capacity, in people in this region to conduct normal politics.

07:44 Analysis of the vote and impact on Montenegro internal policy

When I look at opinion polls, why people voted the way they did in Montenegro, there’s a substantial proportion who voted for independence who have had misgivings about Milo Djukanovic as a leader, so there’s a clear constituency of voters there who want to vote for another party although they voted for independence. Now, as far as I can see, the opposition today, certainly the more extreme part of the Pro Union Bloc can never attract those voters anyway. I think it’s disappointing that Predrag Bulatovic who did look as if he had an interest in playing a part in Montenegro after the referendum, in Montenegrin democratic politics as an opposition, an alternative to the current government, he also by participating in this unnecessary questioning of the referendum results, I think has lost credibility with that part of the voters who were looking for an alternative to Djukanovic and then of course we see…

Well I’m not sure yet, they looked to me terribly convincing as a serious opposition so I think it’s unfortunate, but I think Milo Djukanovic … no doubt in due course within a year or two a new opposition movement will arise, base on the issues that Montenegro still has to face.

09:43 On the Montenegrin reform agenda

There will be no more hiding now behind the independence issue, it’s quite clear now the issues on the agenda are those of a standard transition, economic transition and there will be no more excuses for not cleaning out banks, financial institutions, privatization process isn’t so cool. And of course as Montenegromoves forward towards the EU with the Stabilisation and Association Agreement due to be completed by the end of this year, the Montenegrin economy will come under scrutiny.

10:27 On the Serbian reaction

Serbian reactions are very mixed, if we look at public responses, public opinion, their responses to the Montenegroissue go from indifference, good riddance to …

If you look at the Serbian political elite, you have apparently still unresolved issues between the president having basically one approach which is to see this as if regretted the break-up of the Unionbut he recognizes the new reality which he has to work with creatively and positively. So his visit to Montenegrothis weekend is a very welcomed thing, well received in Montenegro. For parts of the government it’s much less clear if they are ready to see Montenegro’s separation from the Unionas an opportunity, they seem to be determined to create further losses out of it. Their behaviour is to continue to question the results of the referendum is extremely damaging to Serbia, it makes Serbia look as if it doesn’t accept the rules the EU has set for the Montenegro referendum, it doesn’t accept the results of the European monitoring for this referendum was exhaustively, intensively monitored, Serbia is questioning the integrity not only of the EU but of the OSCE, UNHCR, all the institutions that participated in fixing fair rules so that doesn’t give Serbia any good at all, it’s a real paradox because the results are the opposite of what such people say they want. They say they want to maintain the Unionbut a behaviour of that sort is not the behaviour of a partner, it’s a behaviour of a bully.

If Serbs can’t get it together to work out their relationships with the Montenegrins, how can we expect anything serious from them at all when it comes to trying to fix a solution to the much more complicated relationship with Kosovo?

The Serbians are inviting themselves to be written off, it’s a very tough thing to say but one has to say this. I consider myself a friend of Serbiaand I’m … that the prospects of watching this management which is Serbian interest to do.

12:55 On Serbian prospects

Serbiahas enormous resources in terms of excellent people, unfortunately these resources are not being fully used. Serbia’s team on SAA negotiations has performed outstandingly well, this is a proof that this is a country that has the capacity to go fast towards the EU if only it could solve its political problems in a rational way. Slovakia ten years ago was the black sheep in Central Europe, it looked as if it was going to fall out of the process of the EU enlargement but it got its act together and now here we are ten years later and it’s Slovak diplomats who very stiffly managed a very sensitive problem like Montenegro on behalf of the whole Union, the EU has a lot to be grateful to them for. If Slovakiacan do it, then Serbiacan do it too. It does a require a country to get its act together for divided democrats to act together and say the overriding priority is to take our country forward to the EU and beyond that we can’t allow ourselves to fall out of the EU enlargement process.