Background: on the eve of the upcoming debate on the next phase of EU enlargement, organised by the Austrian Presidency, we provide background interviews with experts based in Vienna:
- Hans Winkler, State Secretary, Austrian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
- Sandor Richter, expert on EU budget in Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
- Gerald Roskogler from the Institute for Central Europein Vienna
Transcript of the interviews:
ITW Hans Winkler, State Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Austria
00.14 On the need for a broad debate about the future of Europe
We need a discussion on what kind of Europe do we want, what EU means to the ordinary citizens, how far do we want to go, how fast we want to go. All this questions have to do with what are Europeand its future. We are in the middle of such a debate which is going on, parliaments and member states are discussing it, we will see until June where we can find some consensus on future road map or plan
01.10 How this debate concerns the Western Balkans?
We all know that the Treaty of Nice is made for a maximum of 27 countries. The institutions will have to be adapted if EU wants to take in new members. The debate on the constitution or any new treaty is directly linked to the enlargement. In the present institutional set up EU can not absorb new members. The EC and other intuitions are all designed for limited number of members. A constitution would have provided new framework for enlargement. We need to think of what we want to do. Secondly, in the context of Turkish accession, Austriawhich is very much about the capacity to absorb new members, this is something we need to discuss. Can we go on with the agricultural policy like ion the past, can we afford it, will the financial means of the EU be sufficient, is the way we finance EU something that we can do indefinitely in the future... All these questions are directly linked to the further enlargement. We need to do our own homework in the EU before we can talk about taking 28, 29, 30, 31 members.
03.05 On the two processes: EU reforms and enlargement
This is two processes. In one hand candidates and future candidate countries must to their reforms. And the EU does its homework and get ready for new members. After Bulgariaand Romaniawe have reach 27 members, which is the figure in Treaty of Nice. We need both. Candidate countries to be ready and EU to be ready. In the meantime this does not mean that we don’t continue the process of integration.
04.03 On the potential dangers of destabilisation in the WB region
I think that the potential danger is still there. I don’t think it is very real right now, progress achieved in the last years is significant and now we all know that the solution for Kosovo has to be found. Because this is very important for the stability in the region. We think that the possible referendum in Montenegrowill go under regular circumstances. I think that with every day that both countries get closer to the EU and advance economically, socially and politically danger of instability is becoming less and less.
04.47 Cutaways Hans Winkler
ITW Sandor Richter, expert on EU budget in Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
05.24 On the importance of the EU budget in the enlargement process
The budget is very important for the further enlargement because even if Bulgaria and Romania are included in the future 2007-2013 budgets, Croatia is not included and we know that that related costs for the enlargement for Macedonia are not included. So it is problem how to create a room for further members in financial budgetary terms. If we have a look at last 10 years before 2004 enlargement, lot of fears was there on what will happen when ten new members come. Fears of unemployment, inflation, unfair competition and so on. Now two years after we see that nearly all of these fears are unfounded. It is interesting to learn from that enlargement. What can be taken out as lessons for evaluating the dangers and opportunities of further enlargement?
07.19 On enlargement fears and what the Austrian Presidency could do about it
Before reaching a fundamental reform concerning the new budget I can not really imagine serious negotiation on further enlargement. But the good news is that at the end of the EU Council document about the budget there were mention of 2008-2009 revision of the whole budget should take place; I hope that fundamental reforms will be at least initiated at that time to enable further enlargement. Under the present conditions under the terrible bargaining on the budget in the Council I can not imagine really involving more countries.
08.17 On the impossibility to negotiate membership with Macedoniawithout fundamental budgetary reform in the EU
As far as I can judge sentiments in the old 15 members of the EU, and most of them are net payers in the budget, Bulgariaand Romaniaare already on the point of non return. Croatiais somehow with one foot already in the club, but anything which goes beyond that is for the moment behind an emotional barrier. Huge pat of the population and politics looking to their voters are emotionally blocked for further enlargement.
09.19 Western Balkans are behind emotional barrier of the EU public opinion concerning enlargement
What we can expect is instead of general fear what bad may happen, we can touch individual issues and have a look at that. Ok, we feared there will be unfair competition after the enlargement 2004. Did that happen? No. And when we have confirming answers d the expected dangers realised or not, these positive feedbacks from this question may step by step diminish the fears of the enlargement. The fear is there, we have to recon with that fear and I think the Austrian Presidency may contribute to slowly step by step eliminate these fear that at one pt we can have majority for enlargement.
I’m sure that the Austrian presidency can contribute to clear these issues, to diminish the fears, to channel the discussion toward concrete questions instead of being blocked by general bad feelings.
11.00 How the EU financial instruments can help candidate countries
In the new member countries these instruments were very important. Not because that they brought much money to the economies. The contribution was of course considerable, but what was really important was to train institutional system to receive transfers from the EU. This is very sophisticated process; we need bureaucrats, we need functional institutions and it lasts for couple of years from the beginning to be really able to handle these resources. And if the transfers start to come years earlier than accession takes place it means that by that time accession really comes and higher amount money flows to the member country, the institutional system has learned to deal with these resources. If you spoil a project, it is not a problem if it is a small project. You try again and you learn. But if you have the opportunity to have 1 or 2 percents of your GDP through the EU budget and the institutional system is not mature enough to receive it and you lose that, it is a pain. So it is much better to learn even from failures with smaller amounts, than to have a big loss.
13.00 Cutaways
ITW Gerald Roskogler from the Institute for Central Europein Vienna
13.44 On the importance of the fact that the WB are on the Austrian Presidency agenda
SEE issue is on the agenda, there will be meeting about it and the commitment toward strong development of WB countries. This is one of the aims of the Austrian Presidency. This is a strong point. The fact that the item will be discussed will bring step further to closer contact between EU and countries of the WB.
14.31 On the start of negotiations talks with Macedonia
Start of negotiation talks is mainly a political decision. This depends also on Macedonia, on the internal developments, on the implementation of the Ohrid Agreement, a valuation of the progress Macedoniawill make in the economic field. But it also depends on the internal development of the EU itself. After the collapse of the constitution referenda’s in Franceand Netherlandsthere are many voices saying that the break is necessary for the moment, no to further enlargement. This means of course that in this moment the mood for enlargement is not favourable as it used to be 10 years ago. I think these two factors have to be taken into regard when discussing the opening of the negotiations.
15.49 On the future of the EU constitution
I don’t think it is wise to stick on this constitutional treaty. We don’t know what will happen with it and I guess that in this moment none of the political leaders of the EU really knows how to step out of this crisis. This is the task now for the Austrian presidency to figure out the possibilities how to overcome the problem. But; if not the constitutional treaty there must be something else that replaces it that makes EU of more of 27 member’s functions. Working methods of the EU are quite the same as they used to be when there where 6 members. If we don’t adapt them and the constitutional treaty was an attempt, than it will be very difficult to have an efficient decision making process. This is precondition for the accession of new members. But this does not mean that the EU constitution has to be implemented as it is. There must be found a way out, an amendment to the Nice Treaty or the constitutional treaty minus some aspects, we will see. I’m convinced that the way out will be found quite soon and that after that the doors for further enlargement could be open again.
17.31 On the influence of the EU constitutional reform to the enlargement toward the Balkan states and the pause of enlargement
It concerns of course the Balkan countries because some of current member states think that it would be good to have pools for the enlargement. This would be just a kind of postponement but it would not mean that WB would loose the membership perspective. This is case with the countries that have severe internal problems to sell the European policy. Especially the countries that had the no vote. There the politicians are concerned about the public opinion and ask the question whether enlargement process was not to fast. Now they think that it would be good to wait with the enlargement.
End of transmission
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